Stochastic Volatility - Options market insights

Stochastic Volatility - Options market insights

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Stochastic Volatility - Options market insights
Stochastic Volatility - Options market insights
Intraday post (02/April), Bulltrap? Stagflation
Market analysis

Intraday post (02/April), Bulltrap? Stagflation

Apr 02, 2025
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Stochastic Volatility - Options market insights
Stochastic Volatility - Options market insights
Intraday post (02/April), Bulltrap? Stagflation
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Market is trading at 5600 during asia…
After my weekly post, we can see investors gravitating toward value stocks with lower beta, as a defense against further selloffs.
As I keep saying, volatility is simply too high now in a short tenor, and market needs to solve first the liquidity issue before continuing its path to the downside. Thus, funds are in mean reversion mode during RTH.
As RV comes down (still not visible in every metrics), the risk parity based funds slightly increase their long exposures, that provides a short-term support and bull-trap, until the adverse impact of tariffs on growth, corporate earnings, and consumption becomes apparent.

Treasury curves are bull-flattening, especially at the front-end. This, coupled with front-end real yields hitting new multi-year lows means that market is increasingly pricing in a slowdown in growth, while still expects higher inflation:

This is what I keep talking about: stagflation. And this is what Trump needs to fight.

Coding intraday gamma

Speed profile breakdown:

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