Intraday post (26/march), vol comparsion, long gamma trade

bear trap and bull trap into Rosh Chodesh Nisan?

In this weekly post I convered the base, initial context that we should take as the initial point when we are making comparsions or monitoring the changes. Also convered the JPM collar hedge.
Recent indications suggest that the “bear‑case” for tariffs is being moderated. If tangible tariff details are released on 2nd of April, there can be significant clarity for corporate planning. This can help dampen volatility and long squeeze UST and short squeeze SPX.

I will drop a new geo post soon, but now in short:
History shows that Russia has been most successful in its geopolitical struggles when the West was divided.
During the Great Northern War, Peter the Great’s Russia exploited divisions within Europe’s anti-Swedish coalition; in the Napoleonic Wars, Russia allied with Great Britain—usually a rival—to defeat France. In World War II, the Soviet Union benefited from divisions between the USA and Germany’s former allies.
Conversely, when the West acted as a unified entity, Russia had to face its greatest challenges—such as during the Cold War, which ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In light of these historical lessons, it would be unwise for Moscow to ignore the potential for accelerating the rift between Washington and its European allies.
Russia must continue cooperating with Trump’s team while indirectly supporting those European voices that advocate a more balanced approach toward Russia. Moscow must deepen its bilateral economic relations with individual European countries, circumventing Brussels’ restrictive policies wherever possible. It should also closely monitor any serious Western European attempts to create an independent military bloc.
Crucial to understand.

Let’s check the skew, how it progressed during the week.
This is SPX skew 1 week ago:

And currently:

Into this Friday expo the skew became longer by 10.30%, with put/ATM skew bid by 5.08% and call/ATM offered by -5.22%
(Note also that April OpEx skew is also getting longer.) Besides call selling, we can see some significant increase on the tails even compared to yesterday:

But call selling is coming back into EOM expo:

For bulls, it is very important to hold’n’close above 5710.25 into the weekend in order to not let downside vol to get realized… I’ll tell you why I smell bear trap here, but now…