FOMC Day, Bessent put (hidden QE) + Intraday post (18/June)
I dropped this tweet yesterday…
Yesterday I explained that the consensus among analysts is that he will maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance with no explicit tilt toward rate cuts. Fed funds futures imply near-zero odds of a June cut, pushing the first cut out to September at the earliest. Inflation expectations remain elevated: the University of Michigan’s June survey shows 1-year ahead at 5.1% (down from 6.6%) and long-run at 4.1%, both still well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Only a surprise oil-shock (Hormuz) or midsummer tariff surge could force a dovish pivot.
Meanwhile tthe Fed recent bond‐buying activity is about reinvesting maturing securities and slowing QT. When the Fed reduced its monthly runoff cap from $60 billion to $25 billion of Treasuries on June 1, it basically slowed down QT.
Bessent shifted toward short‐dated bills aimed at capping 10-year yields by manipulating supply, temporarily helping to anchor term premia. The underlying driver is that investors shy away from funding a heavily indebted economy.
You can see here that the main focus is still on recession:
And here you can find some important trading advices for free:
Today’s breakdown, levels, and reversion inputs are for paid subs only…