Volatility flows, Sentiment read and OpEx - Weekly post (16-20/June)

Last week, we had a sentiment shift towards growth concerns, inevitably suppressive vol selling feedback loop that ended up in a red 80%+ reversion signal to own the market on the short side. But spot closed above the sentiment-flip level.
The June 2025 Israel–Iran escalation (“Operation Rising Lion”) triggered a flight to quality across multiple markets: U.S. Treasury yields fell amid a bull-steepening of the curve as investors sought safe havens, the yen reacted sharply, signaling unwinding of yen-funded carry trades. Persistent Middle East tensions could keep the yen bid, hindering a sustainable carry revival.
Dark-pool data shows institutional equity outflows as a pre-OpEx defensive move, underscoring private-venue activity as a barometer of large-account risk aversion. Funds target convexity via structured-product hedges on oil and FX, anticipating what the vol market shows us…
I posted this on Twitter, in case you missed it. Dropped some important infos.
First, we will look at the volatility flows, because they are the ones that matter the most now…