Weekly post (17-21/march)

In this post I explained the geo context, that is crucial important bcs in these times where the world order is about to shift, the geopolitics, economy and market are breathing together.
Here I explained the spot decay again and touched this OpEx - EOM window dynamics with JPM collar vs OpEx.
I want to add, that on multiple occasions, the 1987 Washington Agreement between the Soviet Union and the USA has been mentioned—a deal in which both sides pledged to dismantle their ground-launched intermediate and shorter-range missiles.
In 2019, Donald Trump was the first to withdraw from this agreement, followed by Vladimir Putin the very next day. Yet both parties continue to indicate willingness to abide by its terms on the condition that they can conduct official inspections at each other’s missile bases at any time.
Of course, no such inspections have taken place officially since then.

On July 8, 1997 when NATO invited Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic to join, Russia and NATO signed the Founding Act, in which Russia accepted NATO’s future eastern expansions. In return, NATO promised not to deploy nuclear weapons within these new member states and, barring national security needs, not to station any further military forces in those countries.
NATO fully adhered to this agreement until 2014, and even at the outbreak of the Crimean conflicts, it only stationed a symbolic number of troops along its border.
Furthermore, last December, Russia presented the USA and NATO with a near-ultimatum in the form of a draft treaty. They demanded: 1) the former Soviet states that are not yet NATO members must never be allowed to join NATO; 2) NATO must not deploy strike capabilities, either near the Russian border or within Ukraine, and 3) NATO must roll back its infrastructure to its pre-1997 status.
NATO rejected points 1 and 3, but was willing to negotiate on point 2—however, those negotiations have yet to take place.

The issue, therefore, runs far deeper than what the media suggests. Neither side is beyond reproach, but it was NATO that began to violate agreements with an aggressive approach towards Russian borders, while Russia—whose identity inherently involves feeling perpetually threatened—took preemptive steps against NATO.

This is the problem that needs solution.
As I always say, a peace reached too quickly is no real peace, and a partial ceasefire is no real ceasefire. Progress is slow, but it’s happening. Fortunately, there’s no rush among the guys in Jeddah, and as far as I hear, negotiations are heading in a good direction—just inch by inch.