Weekly post (14-18/July)

We have datas this week.
CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, Retail Sales on Thursday, and Unemployment rate on Friday. Plus it is OpEx week.
The thing is that recession odds are going up again, as stagflationary slowdown is there driven by higher import levies.
As you all know, Trump extended July 9 tariff deadlines to August 1 and threatened new levies (up to 35% on Canada, 50% on copper), keeping trade-policy uncertainty elevated. Import-price data this week will be the first hard read on how these renewed threats feed into inflation.

In short,
For PPI the consensus is +2.6%, factory-gate inflation matching or beating expectations would foreshadow further consumer inflation;
Retail Sales should rebound modesty after May’s steep drop, otherwise it increases recession concerns;
Sharp import-price jumps would confirm tariff pass-through, adding to headline CPI risk;
Contraction in Real Earnings would erode spending power and weigh on consumption, amplifying stagflation concerns;
CPI is trivial. Consensus is +0.3%

Also we have earnings too.
Tech and industrial reports are very important in terms of commentary on supply-chain disruptions, tariff pass-through and end-market demand, reinforcing the stagflation versus soft-landing narrative. While retail and consumer-staples earnings (e.g., PepsiCo) will be watched for consumption trends amid rising prices and the wealth effect backdrop.

For the coming week, what I see momentum-wise is that the SPX should perform 6255.89 in average in order to maintain the positive disbalance, and should remain above 6135.67 in order to aavoid shifting into the negative path… Downside odds are 84.44%