ANNOUNCEMENT:
I’ll be on holiday from 28th of June to 4th of July. There will be only a weekly post on 27/June.
Weekly post:
PPI
PPI is bad. Headline is high, core is 0.8 in one month, accelerating trend. PCE is mostly derived from PPI, so core PCE will go up, hike % must go up. Meanwhile geo risk emerges again, as I kept warning you that Iran is not done.
Market is down as expected. Testing the structure that I marked. However weekly says, market doesn’t expect structure to be broken, only a fakeout at max. Market is at pivot now. Make-it-or-break-it.
But odds favor for fakeout to trap bears, and unwind all of it into OpEx, Warsh and IPO, then July-August window will hit hard. Until that, wide ranging, as I said during last May VIX expo.
Let’s look at today’s positioning…
