Intraday post (19/Aug)
Weekly post:
To answer the question of some members about current situation, this is what I see: the geopolitican environment is very volatile and unsecure. And this is the base for the Fed vs Gov beef too.
It is a pro- vs contra-russian ideological beef for now, on the surface, while Xi is the final boss.
The chances are high that the ceasefire initiatives will backfire, Trump will suffer controversy and political exposure, and some Covid-like crisis to emerge after late November this year.
Very risky window… this whole Q3/Q4 window. Investors are cashing out, and doing speculative trades, while money is flowing into bonds and MMFs.
It is literally impossible to have significantly higher odds for any outcomes now, this is why it is called “uncertainity”, bcs the value of odds are near to each other…
Let’s look at today’s positioning: