Ahead of datas, Short-term positioning shift, Risk/reward shift + Intraday post (02/July)

Sentiment and risk/reward shift ahead?
Yesterday, Powell spoke in ECB conferenc in Poland. He reaffirmed that the Fed remains data-dependent, weighing each meeting’s economic indicators—particularly on inflation, employment, and the effects of recent tariffs—before deciding on interest-rate cuts. He emphatized that that U.S. tariffs have elevated core inflation forecasts, necessitating caution, and that he needs to wait for incoming jobs, CPI, and tariff-impact data.
We have NFP, PMI and unemployment rate datas tomorrow.
After the tariffs deadline trade-war escalation threatens both growth and the Fed’s easing window. Sentiment is actually about bad news are bad news, the trend is already clear:

Market bets on this tariff shock and datas into next week with a heavy short fly spread at 6000/6070/6145, now as a short vega, vomma and charm, and long veta, long vanna, theta and delta bet.
This creates a heavy local support in the 6162-6132 field, centered around the wing of 6145, creating a heavy demand bid there, with dealers swallowing vol up on downward moves + local MM long gamma effect. But the decay flow is suppressive bcs of charm and veta, flooring the vol and supports my ‘grind up from next week with vomma supply’ theory. As on the longer tenors, SPX is getting net longer vanna (but not confirmed by the vol complex, look at only VIX fighting with my 16.5s pivot), the mechanical vol grind up would cap the upside.
That shifts the risk/reward, hence I took positions I described yesterday.
The risk is the MM short veta factor…