After FOMC and US-UAE deal, Intraday post (08/May)

FOMC is unfolded as we all expected, and also we got the pre-Fed pullback.
Traders see only about a one-in-four chance that the Fed will cut at its June meeting, and by July 30, the odds jump to over 60%

The gap between yesterday’s fed-funds rate and the falling implied curve creates room for 2s10s steepening trades as longer maturities come down later in the year. However, listen…
When investors buy 4-, 8-, 13- and 17-week bills, bank reserves fall—pushing money-market rates up toward the Fed’s target. If demand slackens, dealers absorb bills then monetize them via the Fed’s RRP and repo facilities, stabilizing yields. By selling more bills (and fewer notes), the Treasury reduces long-end supply, which buys down those yields—a hidden QE.
And meanwhile just before the minutes I warned you all that market is building ‘crash mats’ for the momentum by selling OTM puts, vol carry trades:

Let me show you something interesting…